Abstract：The identification of water carrying capacity in Qinmang River Basin (Henan Section) is imminent in order to protect the water ecological environment. The Driving-force Pressure Resistance State Response (DPRSR) model was adopted to evaluate the water ecological carrying capacity of Qinmang River Basin (Henan Section) from 2008 to 2018. Then the Vensim software was used to build a System Dynamics (SD) model to predict and analyze the water ecological carrying capacity in the future under different development modes (conventional development mode, comprehensive development mode and ecological priority development mode). The results show that the overall water ecological carrying capacity of Qinmang River Basin (Henan section) from 2008 to 2018 is critical preference. Under the comprehensive development model, the water ecological carrying capacity is within the bearable range, which is recommended as the optimal plan for the sustainable and healthy development of the water ecology and economic society of Qinmang River Basin. The results provides beneficial references for regional water ecological environment protection and social development strategy formulation.
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2023, Vol. 10 
