Prediction model for the landslide movement distance induced by earthquake based on the reliability theory
YANG Mingyu1, CHEN Hongqi2, Qi Xiaobo2, ZOU Zongshan3, WANG Guangbing3, LIU Hongyan4
1. Xi’an Engineering Investigation and Design Research Institute of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Co., Ltd., Shanxi Xi’an 710054,China; 2. Geological Disaster Emergency Technical Guidance Center of MNR, Beijing 100081, China; 3. Poly Explosive Hami Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Hami, 839000, China; 4. School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
Abstract：The landslide movement distance is an important index to evaluate the scope of landslide hazard, therefore its prediction method is always being concerned. The actual landslide movement distance often has a strong randomness, but a deterministic calculation formula is offered in current prediction models without the consideration of the randomness. Based on this situation, Firstly, the theoretical model for the landslide movement distance proposed by predecessors was analyzed, and the landslide movement distance is mainly positively correlated with the landslide volume V and elevation H. Then, the authors proposed the general functional relation for the landslide movement distance. Secondly, based on 46 landslide cases induced by “5·12” Wenchuan Earthquake, the correlation analysis of the main factors affecting the landslide movement distance was carried out. It is concluded that the landslide volume V, elevation H and their combination VH have significant influence on the landslide movement distance, and the multiple regression statistical model for the landslide movement distance was established. Finally, the statistical model for the landslide movement distance based on the reliability theory was put forward, according to different engineering importance. The calculation example shows that the higher the confidence is, the larger the predicted range of the landslide movement distance will be, with the higher the relocation and protection cost. Therefore, a reasonable degree of confidence should be chosen according to the actual situation. This study is helpful to further optimize the statistical model for the prediction of the landslide movement distance, and then provides reliable evidence for landslide disaster evaluation and control.
杨明钰, 陈红旗, 祁小博, 邹宗山, 王光兵, 刘红岩. 基于可靠度理论的地震滑坡运动距离预测模型[J]. 中国地质调查, 2023, 10(3): 102-109.
YANG Mingyu, CHEN Hongqi, Qi Xiaobo, ZOU Zongshan, WANG Guangbing, LIU Hongyan. Prediction model for the landslide movement distance induced by earthquake based on the reliability theory. , 2023, 10(3): 102-109.
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