Attribution analysis of annual average runoff depth variation in the upper reaches of the Bao River based on the Budyko hypothesis
WANG Jiangyulong1, LIU Junjian1, SHI Jingtao1, WANG Guoqiang2, ZHANG Junchao3, WANG Yanliang1, JIAGN Yuge1, LI Hengfei1, AN Hongyan1
1. Langfang Natural Resources Comprehensive Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Hebei Langfang, 065000, China; 2. Pingquan Water Affairs Bureau, Hebei Chengde 067500,China; 3. Pingquan Soil and Water Conservation Construction Service Center, Hebei Chengde 067500, China
摘要近年来京津冀水资源短缺对生态环境有着重要的影响,为量化区分气候变化和人类活动对水资源的影响,针对京津冀水源涵养区北部山区典型小流域瀑河上游开展径流深变化归因分析。利用瀑河上游1981—2020年降水、蒸发和径流等资料,采用曼-肯德尔法(Mann-Kendall method,M-K法)检验确定1981—2006年为基准期、2007—2020年为变化期。分析发现,与基准期相比,变化期年均径流深减少了46.47 mm,约占基准期径流深总量的77.10%。利用重标度极差分析法(Rescaled Range Analysis,R/S法),推断瀑河上游未来年均径流深与1981—2020年间年均径流深的变化趋势相反,即呈现相对平稳的增加趋势。基于Budyko假设原理,定量地评价了气候变化(降水量和潜在蒸散发)和人类活动对该区年径流深的影响程度,气候变化对径流影响贡献率为40.30%,人类活动影响的贡献率为59.71%。人类活动对径流的影响主要通过土地利用类型的改变,研究区共有30.28%的土地发生了相互转化,其中乔木林地2020年较1985年增加了67.61%,极大程度增加了研究区的水源涵养能力,同时植被覆盖度的增加也一定程度上降低了潜在蒸散发。研究可增进对京津冀北部山丘区水文水资源的认识,为京津冀水源涵养功能驱动因素筛选提供一定的参考。
Abstract：In recent years, the shortage of water resources in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has an important impact on the ecological environment. In order to quantify the impact of human activities and climate change on water resources, the authors in this article conducted an attribution analysis of runoff changes in typical small watersheds in the northern mountainous areas of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei water conservation area. Based on the data of precipitation, evaporation, and runoff in the upper reaches of the Bao River from 1981 to 2020 and the Mann Kendall method (M-K method), the baseline period was determined from 1981 to 2006 and the variation period was determined from 2007 to 2020. The results show that the annual average runoff depth during the variation period decreased 46.47 mm compared with the baseline period, accounting for 77.10% of runoff the total depth during the baseline period. Based on Rescaled Range Analysis (R/S), the future annual average runoff depth of the upper reaches in the Bao River was deduced to keep an opposite changing trend compared with the annual average runoff depth from 1981 to 2020, showing a stable increasing trend. Based on the Budyko hypothesis principle, the impact of climate change and human activities on the annual runoff depth in this region was quantitatively evaluated. The contribution rate of climate change to the runoff depth was 40.29%, and the contribution rate of human activities to the runoff depth was 59.71%. The impact of human activities on the runoff depth is mainly through changes in the land use type. A total of 30.28% of the land in the study area has undergone mutual transformation, with an increase of 67.61% in tree forests in 2020 compared to 1985, which greatly enhanced the water conservation capacity of the study area. The increase on vegetation coverage also reduces the potential evaporation. The research results could enhance the understanding of hydrological and water resources in the hilly areas of the northern Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and provide some references for screening the driving factors of water source conservation function in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
王江玉龙, 刘俊建, 史敬涛, 王国强, 张军超, 王雁亮, 姜禹戈, 李横飞, 安洪岩. 基于Budyko假设的瀑河上游年均径流深变化归因分析[J]. 中国地质调查, 2024, 11(3): 83-91.
WANG Jiangyulong, LIU Junjian, SHI Jingtao, WANG Guoqiang, ZHANG Junchao, WANG Yanliang, JIAGN Yuge, LI Hengfei, AN Hongyan. Attribution analysis of annual average runoff depth variation in the upper reaches of the Bao River based on the Budyko hypothesis. , 2024, 11(3): 83-91.
[1] Brown A E,Zhang L,McMahon T A,et al.A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation[J].Journal of Hydrology,2005,310(1-4):28-61. [2] Trajkovic S,Kolakovic S.Wind-adjusted Turc equation for estimating reference evapotranspiration at humid European locations[J].Hydrology Research,2009,40(1):45-52. [3] Voöroösmarty C J,Green P,Salisbury J,et al.Global water resources:Vulnerability from climate change and population growth[J].Science,2000,289(5477):284-288. [4] Gao P,Mu X M,Wang F,et al.Changes in streamflow and sediment discharge and the response to human activities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2011,15(1):1-10. [5] Wang G S,Xia J,Cheng J.Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities on runoff by a monthly water balance model:a case study of the Chaobai River basin in northern China[J].Water Resources Research,2009,45(7):W00A11. [6] 胡琦,马雪晴,胡莉婷,等.Matlab在气象专业教学中的应用——气象要素的M-K检验突变分析[J].实验室研究与探索,2019,38(12):48-51,107. Hu Q,Ma X Q,Hu L T,et al.Application of Matlab in meteorological teaching:M-K test for the abrupt change analysis of meteorological elements[J].Research and Exploration in Laboratory,2019,38(12):48-51,107. [7] Chang J X,Wang Y M,Istanbulluoglu E,et al.Impact of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Weihe River Basin,China[J].Quaternary International,2015,380-381:169-179. [8] Chawla I,Mujumdar P P.Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015,19(8):3633-3651. [9] 张玲玲. 人类活动和气候变化对滦河流域径流影响的研究[J].中国水运,2019,19(12):136-137. Zhang L L.Modeling of nitrate flux between groundwater and surface water based on a coupled model in Shaying River Basin[J].China Water Transport,2019,19(12):136-137. [10] 付博超. 滦河流域近59年径流变化分析研究[J].水利科技与经济,2019,25(12):48-55. Fu B C.Analysis of runoff changes in Luanhe River Basin in recent 59 years[J].Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy,2019,25(12):48-55. [11] 袁喆,杨志勇,董国强.近47年来降水变化和人类活动对滦河流域年径流量的影响[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(4):66-69,80. Yuan Z,Yang Z Y,Dong G Q.Impacts of precipitation changes and human activities on annual runoff in the Luanhe River Basin during recent 47 years[J].South-to-North Water Diversion and Water Science & Technology,2012,10(4):66-69,80. [12] 陈鑫. 基于SWAT模型的海河典型流域径流变化归因分析[D].泰安:山东农业大学,2019. Chen X.Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in Typical Basin Haihe River Basin Based on SWAT Model[D].Tai'an:Shandong Agricultural University,2019. [13] 张殷钦,胡伟,刘俊民.基于R/S分析法的地下水位动态变化趋势分析[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,43(12):4912-4916. Zhang Y Q,Hu W,Liu J M.Groundwater level regime variation trend on basis of rescaled range analysis[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2012,43(12):4912-4916. [14] 傅抱璞. 山地蒸发的计算[J].气象科学,1996,16(4):328-335. Fu B P.On the calculation of evaporation from land surface in mountainous areas[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,1996,16(4):328-335. [15] 李斌,李丽娟,覃驭楚,等.基于Budyko假设评估洮儿河流域中上游气候变化的径流影响[J].资源科学,2011,33(1):70-76. Li B,Li L J,Qin Y C,et al.Impacts of climate variability on streamflow in the upper and middle reaches of the Taoer River based on the Budyko hypothesis[J].Resources Science,2011,33(1):70-76. [16] Li L J,Zhang L,Wang H,et al.Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China[J].Hydrological Processes,2007,21(25):3485-3491. [17] Ma Z M,Kang S Z,Zhang L,et al.Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2008,352(3-4):239-249. [18] 李秋菊,李占玲,王杰.黑河流域上游径流变化及其归因分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2019,17(3):31-39. Li Q J,Li Z L,Wang J.Variation and attribution of runoff over the upper reaches of Heihe River Basin[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2019,17(3):31-39. [19] 王庆明,张越,杨姗姗,等.海河流域山区植被覆盖度与水热因子关系研究[C]//2022中国水利学术大会论文集(第四分册).郑州:黄河水利出版社,2023:366-374. Wang Q M,Zhang Y,Yang S S,et al.A Study on the Relationship Between Vegetation Coverage and Hydrothermal Factors in Mountainous Areas of the Haihe River Basin[C]//Proceedings of 2022 Proceedings of the China Water Conservancy Academic Conference.Zhengzhou:The Yellow River Water Conservancy Press,2023:366-374. [20] 赵勇,何国华,李海红,等.基于Choudhury-Yang公式的泾河流域蒸散发归因分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2019,17(1):8-14. Zhao Y,He G H,Li H H,et al.Attribution analysis on evapotranspiration changes in the Jinghe River Basin based on Choudhury-Yang equation[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2019,17(1):8-14. [21] 王勇,杨瑞,瞿爽,等.楠杆自然保护区不同植被类型土壤物理特性及涵养水源功能分析[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(6):183-188. Wang Y,Yang R,Qu S,et al.Analysis of soil physical characteristics and water conservation function of different vegetation types in NANGAn natural reserve[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(6):183-188. [22] 杨洁. 基于植被恢复的云岩河流域水文响应模拟[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2021. Yang J.Hydrological Response Simulation of Yunyan River Basin Based on Vegetation Restoration[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences (Beijing),2021. [23] 邓睿,张治意,陈亚.嘉陵江流域下游地表径流对土地利用变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(3):141-147. Deng R,Zhang Z Y,Chen Y.Responses of runoff to land use changes in Lower Jialing River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(3):141-147. [24] 杜勇,李建柱,牛凯杰,等.1982-2015年永定河山区植被变化及对天然径流的影响[J].水利学报,2021,52(11):1309-1323. Du Y,Li J Z,Niu K J,et al.Analysis of vegetation change and its impact on natural runoff in the mountain area of the Yongding River Basin from 1982 to 2015[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2021,52(11):1309-1323.
2024, Vol. 11 
