|
|
Current states of world petroleum resource and its future trends |
LUAN Xiwu1,2 |
1. Key Laboratory of Marine Hydrocarbon Resources and Environmental Geology, Ministry of Land and Resources; Qingdao Institute of Marine Geology, China Geological Survey, Qingdao 266071, China; 2. Laboratory for Marine Mineral Resources, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266071, China |
|
|
Abstract The current states of world oil and gas resources, the relationship between world oil and gas supply and demand, and the trend of world oil and gas price change and economic development have been detailed and analyzed in this paper. We noticed that in a limited time span (e.g. 100 years), world oil and gas discovery and production would go up other than follow a bell shape, and excess oil and gas supply and low oil and gas prices would maintain a long time (e.g. 10 years). The author recommends that both the government and company should reduce upstream investment, limit funding should focus on giant basin and prolific hydrocarbon depressions guiding by low cost and high efficiency policy, and more effort should shift to renewable energy development. Low-carbon and healthy environment should be the common goal of mankind.
|
Received: 28 December 2015
|
|
|
|
|
[1] Hubbert M K.Energy from fossil fuels[J].Science,1949,109(2823):103-109. [2] Hubbert M K.Hubbert estimates from 1956 to 1974 of US oil and gas[J].Methods and Models for Assessing Energy Resources,1979:370-383.doi:10.1016/B978-0-08-024443-3.50038-8. [3] Campbell C J,Laherrère J H.The end of cheap oil[J].Scientific American,1998,278(3):78-83. [4] Aleklett K,Campbell C J.The peak and decline of world oil and gas production[J].Minerals & Energy-Raw Materials Report,2003,18(1):5-20. [5] Roberts P.The End of Oil:On the Edge of a Perilous New World[M].London:Bloomsberg Publishing PLC,2004. [6] Maugeri L.Oil:Never cry wolf—Why the petroleum age is far from over[J].Science,2004,304(5674):1114-1115.doi:10.1126/science.1096427. [7] BP Statistical Review of World Energy.BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015[R].London:Printing Pureprint Group Limited,2015. [8] BP Statistical Review of World Energy.BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014[R].London:Printing Pureprint Group Limited,2014. [9] 翟立功.世界能源消费与人口[J].经济问题,1980(8):64. [10] 张抗.国际油气资源形势分析与思考[J].国际石油经济,2004,12(3):32-35. [11] 杨宇,刘毅,金凤君.世界石油探明储量分布特征与空间格局演化[J].世界地理研究,2014,23(1):19-28. [12] 朱光明,李庆春,王玉贵.21世纪全球油气资源形势和海上多波地震技术展望[J].西安工程学院学报,2000,22(1):1-8. [13] 赵纪东,郑军卫.深水油气科技发展现状与趋势[J].天然气地球科学,2013,24(4):741-746. [14] EIA.Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources:An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States[R].Washington D C:U.S.Energy Information Administration,2013. [15] Zou C N,Dong D Z,Wang Y M,et al.Shale gas in China:Characteristics,challenges and prospects (I)[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,2015,42(6):753-767. [16] Zhao X G,Yang Y H.The current situation of shale gas in Sichuan,China[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,50:653-664. [17] 栾锡武.中国页岩气开发的实质性突破[J].中国地质调查,2016,3(1):7-13. [18] U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA).Annual Energy Outlook 2015[R].Washington D C:EIA,2015. [19] U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA).Annual Energy Outlook 2014[R].Washington D C:EIA,2014. [20] 孙小兵.世界能源新格局下中国的能源安全问题[J].南方能源建设,2014,1(1):16-24. [21] 上海社会科学院世界经济研究所宏观经济分析小组.砥砺前行中的世界经济:新常态、新动力、新趋势——2015年世界经济分析与展望[J].世界经济研究,2015(1):3-23. [22] 钱兴坤,姜学峰.2014年国内外油气行业发展概述及2015年展望[J].国际石油经济,2015,23(1):35-43. [23] U.S.Energy Information Administration.International Energy Outlook[R].Washington D C:United States EIA,2015. [24] United Nations,Department of Economic and Social Affairs,Population Division.World Population Prospects:The 2015 Revision,Key Findings and Advance Tables.Working Paper No.ESA/P/WP.241[R].New York:[s.n.],2015. [25] International Energy Agency.CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Highlights[R].Paris,France:IEA,2014. [26] Ruddiman W F,Ellis E C,Kaplan J O,et al.Defining the epoch we live in[J].Science,2015,348(6230):38-39. [27] 杜祥琬.能源革命:为了可持续发展的未来[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(7):1-4. [28] 孙志斌.应对气候变化与碳资产管理[J].石油石化节能与减排,2015,5(1):1-8. [29] Dai S P.BP p.l.c.BP Energy Outlook 2035[R].London,United Kingdom:BP p.l.c,2015. |
[1] |
XU Zhenyu, FANG Chaogang, TENG Long, WANG Lingyu. Geological characteristics of lacustrine shale oil and gas of Jinhua Formation in Upper Cretaceous in Jinqu Basin[J]. , 2017, 4(6): 9-14. |
[2] |
DING Fang. Sedimentary facies research of complex lithologic reservoir of S2 section in Moliqing oilfield,Yitong Basin[J]. , 2017, 4(5): 15-23. |
[3] |
ZHANG Wan, WANG Zhibo, LIU Yinghui, ZHOU Jianxin, ZHOU Daoqing, ZHENG Qifang. Application of comprehensive airborne gravity and magnetic investigation in oil and gas resources survey in Junggar Basin[J]. , 2016, 3(6): 10-16. |
[4] |
CHEN Shuwang, GONG Fanhao, YANG Jianguo, ZHANG Jian, LI Yongfei, WANG Dandan, GAO Xiaoyong, LI Xiaohai. Progress and orientation of the project about fundamental geological survey on oil and gas resources in the periphery area of Songliao Basin[J]. , 2016, 3(6): 1-9. |
[5] |
LU Shufan, HE Ben, DU Shengjiang. Geological conditions and exploration prospect of shale gas in Dawuba Formation of Lower Carboniferous of Daiye-1 well in southern Guizhou Province[J]. , 2016, 3(4): 6-11. |
[6] |
CUI Kai. Geological characteristics and resource potential of shale gas from well Suiye 1 in the Niutitang Formation, northern Guizhou[J]. , 2016, 3(3): 16-20. |
|
|
|
|