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| Demand projection of natural gas in China based on the hybrid model of sector consumption |
| GUO Xiaoqian1, LIU Yongquan2 |
1. Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China;
2. Geoscience Documentation Center, China Ceological Survey, Beijing 100083, China |
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Abstract As a main clean energy in China, natural gas has received great attention under the requirement of the low-carbon development strategy. The demand projection of natural gas in China is very important for energy policymakers in future energy sources planning. The natural gas demand is influenced by a series of factors, which have a huge causal impact on demand projection. Therefore, the authors analyzed the influencing factors and the sector consumption of natural gas, and focused on the industrial, residential and transport sector to build a hybrid model. Based on the unit root tests, co-integration test and Granger causality test, the influencing factors of the natural gas demand were identified. Then the grey model and regression analysis were utilized to predict the demand for each factor. Finally, based on the projection above, the total natural gas demand for China will be 6 378.6×108 m3 in 2025.
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Received: 01 June 2020
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2020, Vol. 7 
