基于网格化Logistic回归模型的区域突发环境事件应急决策方法

doi:10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2023.06.11

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Abstract In view of the high uncertainty, complex emergency decision-making scheme and high implementation cost of environmental emergencies, the authors in this research proposed a emergency decision method for regional environmental emergencies based on grid logistic regression model. The Delphi method is used to select the impact variables of regional environmental emergencies, and a probability calculation model of regional environmental emergencies based on logistic regression model is constructed, with the variables as input. The study area was divided into cell forms, and the regional grades were divided to define the scope of the safety area. Under multiple constraints, the objective function was obtained by using the ant colony algorithm, and the optimal evacuation route was obtained to complete the emergency decision scheme design. The experimental results show that this research method is effective for environmental emergencies, and the duration between model establishment and people evacuation is about half an hour. This short time-consuming means the emergency decision is effective for regional environmental emergencies, which would ensure the safety of personnel and property. This research has guiding significance for the prevention and control of regional environmental emergencies.

Key words： gridding logistic regression model regional environmental emergencies evacuation route emergency decision

Received: 11 May 2023

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TP214.33

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	FENG Shoujuan

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FENG Shoujuan. Emergency decision method of regional environmental emergencies based on gridding logistic regression model[J]. , 2023, 10(6): 95-100.

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http://journal25.magtechjournal.com/Jwk_dzdc/EN/10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2023.06.11 OR http://journal25.magtechjournal.com/Jwk_dzdc/EN/Y2023/V10/I6/95

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